Which scenario gives the best chance of survival

The total mortality rate from the virus is the product of the attack rate and the case-fatality rate. In the fourth scenario, 0.

Of course, if the virus spreads more widely or turns out to be more severe, the costs would be larger. In the modeling exercise, we reduce the labor supply by the number of people who die, the hours lost due to sickness, and the hours lost due to people caring for family members who are sick.

We also make assumptions about the rising cost of doing business in each sector, including disruption of production networks in each country; shifts in consumption as a result of changes in household preferences; and the expected rise in equity risk premia on companies in each sector in each country based on exposure to the disease. We model the policy response of central banks in each economy. Some central banks, such as the US Federal Reserve, adjust nominal interest rates in order to target an inflation outcome, while attempting to minimize the loss of output across the economy.

For other countries, like China, central banks also target the exchange rates. Fiscal authorities are assumed to change government spending by an amount related to the health and other intervention costs associated with the virus outbreak, and budget deficits increase automatically in response to the economic downturn.

Both monetary and fiscal policies help, but because a significant part of the shock is a disruption to supply, demand management policies, such as fiscal and monetary policies, go only part of the way to stabilizing the economy. In countries that follow a monetary policy rule which does not only focus on output, the response of monetary policy can make the outcome worse.

Within countries, credible measurement of education and health outcomes sheds light on what works and where to target resources. The Human Capital Project will help nourish the research and analytics on what promotes human capital development, for example, by scaling up the Service Delivery Indicators program and the Measuring Early Learning Quality and Outcomes survey. This approach encourages high-level leadership across time, connecting the dots between sectoral programs and strengthening the evidence base.

The second is being prepared. The Human Capital Project is supporting the scale-up of this type of support for policy and institutional reform, and also working on a range of tools and products to help countries achieve their goals, for example, on human capital public expenditure and institutional reviews, and case studies capturing country-level successes and innovations.

The index is a summary measure of the amount of human capital that a child born today can expect to acquire by age 18, given the risks of poor health and poor education that prevail in the country where she lives. If it scores 0. The index can directly be linked to scenarios for the future income of countries as well as individuals. If a country has a score of 0.

The index is presented as a country average and includes a breakdown by gender for countries where data is available. The HCI quantitatively illustrates the key stages in the trajectory from birth to adulthood of a child born in a given year and their consequences for the productivity of the next generation of workers, with three components:.

Component 1: Survival. This component of the index reflects the unfortunate reality that not all children born today will survive until the age when the process of human capital accumulation through formal education begins. It is measured using the under-5 mortality rate, with survival to age 5 as the complement of the under-5 mortality rate.

Component 2: School. This component of the index combines information on the quantity and quality of education. The quantity of education is measured as the number of expected years of school a child would complete by age 18 given the prevailing pattern of enrollment rates.

The maximum possible value is 14 years, corresponding to the maximum number of years of school obtained as of her 18th birthday by a child who starts preschool at age 4. The quality of education reflects work at the World Bank to harmonize test scores from major international student achievement testing programs into a measure of harmonized test scores. A score of corresponds to the TIMSS high-performance benchmark, while a score of corresponds to the low-performance benchmark equivalent to the minimum benchmarks used in several regional assessments.

Component 3: Health. There is no single broadly accepted, directly measured, and widely available summary measure of health that can be used in the same way as years of school as a standard measure of educational attainment. Instead, two proxies for the overall health environment are used:. Adult survival rates. This is measured as the share of year-olds who survive until age This measure of mortality serves as a proxy for the range of nonfatal health outcomes that a child born today would experience as an adult if current conditions prevail into the future.

Healthy growth among children under age 5. This is measured using stunting rates, that is, as 1 minus the share of children under 5 who are below normal height for age. Stunting serves as an indicator for the prenatal, infant, and early childhood health environments, summarizing the risks to good health that children born today are likely to experience in their early years, with important consequences for health and well-being in adulthood.

What are the data sources for the HCI? How are these data vetted? All the data used to measure the HCI are publicly available and directly and consistently measured across countries. Data on harmonized test scores comes from the Global Database on Education Quality Patrinos and Angrist, , reflecting research at the World Bank to harmonize test scores from major international student achievement testing programs.

The data used in HCI calculations undergo an extensive Bank-wide data review process. Data are shared with World Bank country teams who verify data with education and health experts within the World Bank as well as government counterparts from relevant line ministries.

This process of data quality assurance is particularly important for enrollment rates, where data might be missing or outdated for certain countries in the UIS database. The data review allows the HCI to incorporate stunting rates from nationally representative surveys that have recently become available but have not yet been incorporated in the JME database. The harmonized test scores used to measure the quality of schooling across countries are based on a large-scale effort to harmonize international student achievement tests from several multicountry testing programs to produce the Global Dataset on Education Quality Patrinos and Angrist, Test scores are converted into TIMSS units as the numeraire, corresponding roughly to a mean of and a standard deviation across students of points.

The exchange rate is based on the ratio of average country scores in each program to the corresponding country scores in the numeraire testing program for the set of countries participating in both the numeraire and the other testing program.

The exchange rate is calculated pooling all overlapping observations between and and is therefore constant over time. This ensures that within-country fluctuations in harmonized test scores over time for a given testing program reflect only changes in the test scores themselves and not changes in the conversion factor between tests.

Both reports involved extensive, global review from a wide range of stakeholders. Research has also entailed close collaboration with David Weil, a professor and leading expert on development accounting with Brown University.

The HCI does not report rankings but rather focuses on its meaningful measurement of future worker productivity as a means to benchmark cross-country comparisons. Because the HCI is measured in terms of the productivity of the next generation of workers relative to the benchmark of complete education and full health, the units of the index have a natural interpretation: a value of 0.

Rankings place an inordinately large focus on the fact that a country with an HCI of 0. But this interpretation misses the more critical issue, which is that in both Fiji and Morocco, children born today will grow up with half their human capital potential unfulfilled. Rankings also artificially inflate small differences in scores, while suppressing information on the absolute gains and losses countries have made on the HCI.

For example, there are eight countries clustered between HCI scores of 0. By contrast, there are just two countries between 0. Changes in components of the HCI—measured at the level of outcomes—do not materialize quickly. Data on the components of the HCI are also updated at different frequencies.

Administrative data on child survival to age 5 and the enrollment data that underlie the expected years of school measure are updated annually. Many states keep a list of approved defensive driving course providers, and lots of these offer online programs.

In some states, you may be eligible for insurance premium discounts, "positive" safe driving points, or other benefits. These courses do cost money, but it's worth the investment to be a smarter, safer driver. Reviewed by: Kurt E. Gray, MSM. Larger text size Large text size Regular text size. As a defensive driver, you can avoid crashes and help lower your risk behind the wheel.

Skills That Put You in Control Before you get behind the wheel of that two-ton frame of glass and steel, here are some tips to help you stay in control: Stay focused. Following these defensive driving tips can help reduce your risk behind the wheel: Think safety first. Avoiding aggressive and inattentive driving tendencies yourself will put you in a stronger position to deal with other people's bad driving. Leave plenty of space between you and the car in front. Always lock your doors and wear your seatbelt to protect you from being thrown from the car in a crash.

Be aware of your surroundings — pay attention. Check your mirrors frequently and scan conditions 20 to 30 seconds ahead of you.

Keep your eyes moving. If a vehicle is showing signs of aggressive driving, slow down or pull over to avoid it. If the driver is driving so dangerously that you're worried, try to get off the roadway by turning right or taking the next exit if it's safe to do so. Coral reefs harbour the highest biodiversity of any ecosystem globally and directly support over million people worldwide, mostly in poor countries.

They are among the most threatened ecosystems on Earth , largely due to unprecedented global warming and climate changes, combined with growing local pressures. Over the last three years, reefs around the world have suffered from mass coral bleaching events as a result of the increase in global surface temperature caused by anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. According to UNESCO, the coral reefs in all 29 reef-containing World Heritage sites would cease to exist by the end of this century if we continue to emit greenhouse gases under a business-as-usual scenario.

Latest Issues Briefs. Marine heatwaves. Read more about Marine heatwaves. Post global biodiversity framework. Read more about Post global biodiversity framework. The benefits and risks of rewilding. Rewilding aims to restore healthy ecosystems by creating wild, biodiverse spaces. Read more about The benefits and risks of rewilding. More information:.